Spatially Explicit Land-Use Modelling for Assessing Climate-Resilient Sustainable Urban Forms.

Abstract

Climate resiliency is a key topic for cities across the world especially after the Paris Agreement. By combing socio-economic situations, carbon emission reduction, disaster risk management, and other factors determine sustainability of cities, we need to understand trade-offs among these factors. In other words, wise urban systems design are required in cities in the world. Especially in the developed countries like Japan which are expected to experience unprecedented pollution decrease, we need to achieve “wise shrink” of cities that are desirable from multiple viewpoints. With such a background, we introduce our spatially-explicit urban land-use model (SULM) as a tool to analyze the trade-offs among climate resilient sustainability. The SULM is applied to an analysis in the Tokyo metropolitan area to analyze the implications of Business-As-usual (BAU), Compact city, and Wise shrink land use scenarios. SULM could be a useful tool for assessing urban resiliency against climate extreme events for eco-urbanism oriented land forms.