Dealing with Surprise in Urban Regions. Some Ideas and Examples for Planners.

Abstract

Planners are concerned about the future, the future of cities and regions in particular. However, the future is full of surprise-at least this is what complexity science and concepts like resilience suggest. Unfortunately, planning research has not yet developed a genuine approach to surprise. The paper follows a modest ambition to further planning research with regard to surprise. It proposes a definition of "surprise", interprets dealing with surprise as component of a commitment to resilience, and presents some ideas how to perform foresight and surprise preparation by actors that are involved in urban development. The paper then presents examples from empirical research to illustrate these ideas. The outline of a research agenda concludes the paper.