Climate change and electricity consumption in Baden-Wuerttemberg. The effects of long term temperature variations and extreme hot weather events on the demand for electricity.

Abstract

In a first empirical part load changes in simulated load curves between past (1971-2000) and future (2006 - 2095) timeframes are analysed. The simulation is conducted by using regional climate model (REMO) data of the emission scenario A1B as input into an electricity forecast model. For this purpose this model was calibrated on the region Baden-Wuerttemberg (BW). The second empirical part starts with a media analysis of the hot summer of 2003. Behavioural changes due to hot temperatures are listed and then conclusions are drawn about changes in electricity demand. In another analysis, the daily heat-induced consumption of selected electric appliances is calculated for the residential sector in BW. In a final analysis, six hypotheses derived from the media analysis on hot weather-induced load shape changes are tested. The correlation test of load and temperature anomalies between hot and normal summer periods shows that rising temperatures not only lead to a daily average load-increase, but that they, are also related to decreasing loads during noon on workdays, to increasing loads during night on workdays and weekends and to a later load curve slope down on workdays.