Kleinräumige Wohnbauflächenprognosen - ein quantitativ orientiertes Instrument zur Reduktion der Flächenneuinanspruchnahme für Wohnzwecke.

Abstract

Der vorgestellte Ansatz will zur Qualifizierung von kommunalen Wohnflächenprognosen im Sinne eines Instruments zur Reduzierung der Flächenneuinanspruchnahme durch die Nutzung Wohnen beitragen. Er ermöglicht schrumpfenden Kommunen eine Wohnflächenbedarf zu ermitteln und liefert kommunalspezifische Informationen in Form von Szenarien zur Bevölkerungs-, Haushalts-, Wohnungs- und Wohnbauflächenentwicklung. Der Ansatz wurde für eine sächsische Region erprobt und mit Vertretern der Kommunalverwaltungen diskutiert.As part of their preparation of or updates to land-use plans, as well as the development of strategically oriented concepts, local planning authorities need long-term projections of future housing and land-use development, which also help to show future land requirements in order to fulfil the basic need of living. However, compared to unrestrained building of new houses and flats, it should always be taken into account that there are ways to save yet unused land, as well as alternative approaches to saving land on a communal level. This raises the question of which methodological improvements in residential area forecasts - when compared to existing approaches - are needed to provide this important information for planning practice. Forecasting approaches at local level are especially important as actual land-use planning is carried out at this administrative level. In addition, the consideration of future housing requirements of households is necessary in order to gain a realistic view of the anticipated demand of land for living. Regarding the offer of residential areas, the integration of available building land is essential to ensure that residential area forecasts are able to contribute as part of an approach to save unused land. Similarly, the derivation of possible alternative scenarios supports land conservation, as this can demonstrate creative ideas and approaches for urban planning regarding land conservation. Also, regular land-use monitoring is essential for the control of land claims for housing in terms of sustainable development of residential areas, and therefore requires the production of scenarios relating to the future needs of housing areas at reasonable intervals.